This article does a great job connecting China’s closed capital account to broader US economic vulnerabilities, drawing insightful parallels to Cold War dynamics. The detailed analysis of rising long bond yields and sovereign debt stresses is timely, especially with the “bond vigilante” narrative making a comeback.
I put together a spreadsheet of the debt to GDP, available @jimdelisle on X and it is really quite interesting. Put against the 10 year return of the bonds, it tells a story of the last 90 years that needs to be told. We’ve got some real troubles coming.
Terrific collection this week, Peter. Kevin Muir wrote an excellent piece on the long bond / CTD topic you highlighted from BNP. It would be amusing if the veil lifting off the 'heads' of the bond vigilantes simply revealed a line of code calculating hedge ratios. But I do agree with Kev that folk are underappreciating what that would look and feel like if/when it happens.
Since you started posting i learned more from you than 3 +1 years at university, thanks for what you do
Pretty much.
This article does a great job connecting China’s closed capital account to broader US economic vulnerabilities, drawing insightful parallels to Cold War dynamics. The detailed analysis of rising long bond yields and sovereign debt stresses is timely, especially with the “bond vigilante” narrative making a comeback.
I put together a spreadsheet of the debt to GDP, available @jimdelisle on X and it is really quite interesting. Put against the 10 year return of the bonds, it tells a story of the last 90 years that needs to be told. We’ve got some real troubles coming.
Terrific collection this week, Peter. Kevin Muir wrote an excellent piece on the long bond / CTD topic you highlighted from BNP. It would be amusing if the veil lifting off the 'heads' of the bond vigilantes simply revealed a line of code calculating hedge ratios. But I do agree with Kev that folk are underappreciating what that would look and feel like if/when it happens.
The older I get the more I realise that market pricing is the sum of technicals and mandated flows. Everything else is just nice story telling!
Shh Peter. This rodent is in the narrative business!
Tell Tails vs. Tell Tales